Republican Sen. Pat Toomey (left) faces a rematch with Democrat Joe Sestak
In the last few months, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey has looked like the favorite in light-blue Pennsylvania. Two polls gave him a
strong job approval rating, and national Democrats aren't happy to see their 2010 nominee, ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, making another run. However, a new survey from Public Policy Polling paints a very different picture of next year's Keystone State contest and finds that while Toomey starts with a lead, he's
far from secure in a race that could decide control of the Senate.
• 44-35 vs. ex-Rep. Chris Carney
• 44-35 vs. state Sen. Vincent Hughes
• 44-34 vs. Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski
• 46-41 vs. ex-Gov. Ed Rendell
• 42-38 vs. 2010 nominee Joe Sestak
• 44-33 vs. Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams
Against all comers, Toomey takes between 42 and 46 percent of the vote, a bit far from the 50 percent mark he'd like to be at. PPP finds Toomey's approval rating underwater at 30-37, not a great place for an incumbent in a hostile state to be. A March
Quinnipiac poll and May survey from
Harper Polling gave Toomey a 49-24 and 54-32 approval rating respectively, and there's no easy explanation for why PPP finds something so different.
Head over the fold for more.
With the exception of Rendell, none of Toomey's prospective foes are well known: At least 70 percent of respondents have no opinion of Carney, Hughes, Pawlowski, or Williams. Sestak, who lost to Toomey 51-49 in 2010, is also anonymous to 54 percent of the state, but he has a narrow 24-22 rating from people who remember him. Sestak's built-in name recognition helps explain why he performs so much better than the four mostly unknown Democrats. Sestak does a better job unifying his party at this early stage and he keeps more independents in the undecided column (though he performs slightly worse with the independents who have made up their minds). As the campaign progresses, Sestak and any other Democrats who run should pick up more support from Democrats as they become better known.
Right now, Sestak and Pawlowski are the only Democrats running. Carney, Hughes, and Williams have all expressed interest, though they've been silent about their plans over the last few months. There's no sign that Rendell wants to be a Senate candidate (though he plays one on TV), which may be just as well, since he posts a meh 42-47 favorable rating four years after leaving office.
While Sestak polls the best of the five Democrats and came close to beating Toomey in the 2010 GOP wave, the national and state parties are wary of him. Sestak has had a bad relationship with these groups ever since he successfully challenged party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter in the 2010 primary. Insiders believe that Sestak then proceeded to run an amateurish race, complaining about how little he coordinated with the rest of the party and relied on family members rather than professionals to staff his campaign. So far, Sestak has done little to reassure his critics that this time will be different, and his weak initial fundraising has only made things worse. Fairly or not, the Democratic establishment is convinced Sestak will cost them a pickup and they've been shopping for another candidate.
Pawlowski's weak 2014 gubernatorial campaign didn't leave anyone impressed, and he's going to need things to go a lot differently if he's going to emerge as a credible threat to Sestak. But the DSCC's top recruit Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro just turned them down and it's possible that when all is said and done, national Democrats will need to bite the bullet and choose between Pawlowski and Sestak.
Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate (five if they lose the White House) and Pennsylvania is likely to be a major target. Team Blue is going to be happy to see a poll showing Toomey vulnerable after months of pessimism, but we have a long way to go here. Toomey has worked hard to define himself as a moderate, and he'll have more than enough cash. Democratic infighting could also leave their eventual nominee bankrupt in this expensive state, and tensions between Sestak and the establishment could cause problems if he's their nominee again. This is going to be a key race in the battle for the Senate, and both parties will be watching all the developments closely.